Baird downgraded Nvidia this morning. The stock rose anyway, and a customer did the lifting
SummaryBaird cut Nvidia to Neutral and its price target to $200 from $500. Nvidia still traded up about 4% by late morning, pulled along by CoreWeave's raised forecast. It's also the House chairs' deadline for Jensen Huang to reply.
· MODEL Editors · 2 min read
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The downgrade. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra cut Nvidia to Neutral from Outperform on Wednesday, Nov. 11, and lowered his price target to $200 from $500, according to CNBC (opens in a new tab) and Reuters (opens in a new tab). His reasons: uncertainty over whether CEO Jensen Huang stays, likely U.S. government action, and a possible slowdown in AI spending. He estimated hyperscaler AI capital spending could grow only about 40% in 2027. He also predicted a new ban on H200 exports to China, which he estimated could mean a $5 billion write-down. That's Baird's estimate, not anything Nvidia has said.
It's a minority view. According to LSEG data cited by CNBC, just 3 of 64 analysts rate Nvidia a hold or worse.
The bounce. Nvidia rose anyway. $NVDA traded at about $175.90 at 11:03 a.m. ET, up about 4.1% from Tuesday's $168.89 close, per Nasdaq. Yahoo Finance called it the stock's first gain since Huang admitted the affair, after two straight days of losses. CNBC noted the same back-to-back losing sessions. Intraday prices move fast and can reverse.
The customer that moved it. CoreWeave, which rents out computing power built largely on Nvidia chips, raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $13.0 billion to $13.3 billion after Tuesday's close, per its Q3 release (opens in a new tab). It also guided to $20 billion to $21 billion in annualized run-rate revenue by year-end and said it expects about $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months. $CRWV traded at about $60.09 at 11:03 a.m. ET, up about 23%, per Nasdaq. Chip stocks including AMD, Micron, Broadcom and Intel also rose, per Investing.com. Before Wednesday's jump, CNBC noted that CoreWeave shares were down 65% from their May highs.
The catch. One strong customer quarter doesn't answer the questions in Baird's note. CoreWeave itself paid $846 million in net interest last quarter, about four times its $207 million operating income (our story from Tuesday).
The deadline. Wednesday is also the date three House Republican chairs set for Huang to accept a closed-door briefing on Nov. 18, or offer another date, per their Nov. 5 release (opens in a new tab). Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast told ABC News (opens in a new tab) on Tuesday he'd "absolutely" subpoena Huang if there's no reply. As of about 8 a.m. PT Wednesday, we found no public reply from Huang or Nvidia. Nvidia's board has said it has "no reason to believe" national security or company secrets were compromised. Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Nov. 17 (background).
Our take. Demand from AI clouds still looks strong. The Huang questions are still open. Those are two separate stories, and today's stock move only answered the first.
Disclosure: Not investment advice. Not sponsored. No affiliate links.
MODEL Editors
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Sources
- Nvidia downgraded by Baird on CEO, AI capex risks
CNBC
- Wall Street analysts turn cautious on Nvidia amid supply issues, Huang uncertainty
Investing.com (Reuters)
- Baird Downgrades Nvidia on China Curbs, AI Demand Worries
Reuters (via U.S. News)
- CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results
CoreWeave Investor Relations
- Nvidia, chip stocks rebound premarket after CoreWeave lifts revenue outlook
Investing.com
- Stocks making the biggest moves Wednesday: CoreWeave, Nvidia, NextNav & more
CNBC
- Nvidia stock rebounds, chip stocks surge as CoreWeave earnings boost AI trade
Yahoo Finance
- Chairmen Mast, Moolenaar, and Crawford Request Jensen Huang Brief Congress on Link to Chinese Intelligence Asset
House Foreign Affairs Committee (Majority)
- House Republicans consider issuing subpoena to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
ABC News
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) quote
Nasdaq
- CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) quote
Nasdaq
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