OpenAI is now $150 billion off. Only $1.25 trillion.

SummaryOpenAI is reportedly close to raising up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation, down from the $1.4 trillion it was discussing a month ago. It would still be the most valuable private company ever.

October 23, 2026 · MODEL Editors · 2 min read

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Some things go on sale before the holidays. This year, one of them is an AI lab.

The markdown. OpenAI is close to finalizing a funding round of up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation, CNBC reported (opens in a new tab) on October 22, citing people familiar with the deal. Investors from the United Arab Emirates and Coatue are leading it, and CNBC says it's being positioned as an "opportunistic" bridge ahead of a possible IPO. Bloomberg reported (opens in a new tab) the same day that OpenAI shifted the value discussed in the talks by $150 billion, down from $1.4 trillion. The Financial Times says the target was cut after some investors pushed back on the $1.4 trillion price.

The math. $150 billion off $1.4 trillion is about 11%. The discount alone is five times the size of the money being raised.

Still not cheap. At $1.25 trillion, OpenAI would be the most valuable private company ever, TechCrunch notes (opens in a new tab). Its last round, in March, valued it at $852 billion post-money, so the "discounted" price is still roughly 47% higher than seven months ago. CNBC also reports the round could come with a deal for more computing capacity from the UAE; OpenAI told investors in February it's targeting about $600 billion in total compute spend by 2030.

The fine print. These are reports based on anonymous sources. The final size of the round is still being determined, OpenAI is aiming for signatures by the end of next week (per CNBC), and terms could change. OpenAI declined to comment to TechCrunch. OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO in June but hasn't said when it will list.

Our take

An 11% markdown on a trillion-dollar company is still a $150 billion rounding error, and it says less about OpenAI's products than about how far investors will stretch before an IPO. The interesting number to watch isn't this round. It's what public markets pay when the shares finally trade.

What we did and didn't do: we read CNBC, Bloomberg, the Financial Times (summary) and TechCrunch reporting on October 23, 2026. We have no inside knowledge of the talks. OpenAI isn't publicly traded. Not investment advice. Not sponsored; no affiliate links.

MODEL Editors

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Cartoon cross-section titled Buying the dip with 3x leverage, drawn from real $SOXL prices. On the left, a diving tower with a sign reading Buy the dip! A cartoon swimmer in orange floaties marked 3x dives head-first, saying: It's down 33%. Bargain! (triple the floaties, triple the fun). Below ground, the first pool is labeled The dip: -33% in a week (Oct 9-16 close). A trapdoor in its floor has swung open, pouring water down a chute into a deeper, darker second pool labeled The dip's dip: -20.5% today (Oct 22 close). A swimmer bobbing in the lower pool asks: Wait. The dip has a basement? On the right, an empty lifeguard chair under a sign: No lifeguard on duty, leverage resets daily. Footer: $SOXL (3x daily chip ETF) took in $6.1B the week to Oct 16, more than any other ETF (ETF.com), while falling 33%. Oct 22: chip index -6.7%, $SOXL -20.5% to $82.11. Not investment advice. Watermark: MODEL, readmodelmag.com.

Markets

Retail bought the chip dip with 3x leverage. The dip had a basement.

The 3x leveraged chip ETF SOXL pulled in $6.1 billion in the week to October 16, more than any other ETF, while falling 33%. On October 22 chip stocks had their worst day since June and SOXL dropped another 20.5%.

October 22, 2026 · MODEL Editors

MODEL news card. Headline: Tesla's cash beat came from spending less. Left: a bar chart of Tesla's 2026 capital expenditures so far, $13.01 billion: Q1 $2.49 billion, Q2 $5.79 billion, Q3 $4.73 billion, next to an outlined bar for the Q3 analyst estimate of about $7.5 billion (LSEG via Reuters). Right: Q3 free cash flow reported plus $1.53 billion versus expected minus $4.92 billion, and Q2 2026 minus $1.09 billion. Full-year 2026 capex plan: April, more than $25 billion; now about $20 billion on the call, 'in excess of $20 billion' in the 10-Q. Also: GAAP profit $787 million, down 43%; new $30 billion of credit lines, undrawn; 400 MW of AI training compute by year end. Footer: Sources Tesla Q3 2026 Update and 10-Q, earnings call, Reuters, CNBC, Electrek. TSLA. Not investment advice.

Markets

Tesla's cash-flow beat came from spending less on AI than planned

Tesla reported $1.53 billion of free cash flow when analysts expected a $4.92 billion burn. The reason: it spent $4.73 billion on capital projects, not the roughly $7.5 billion expected, and cut its 2026 spending plan from more than $25 billion to about $20 billion.

October 22, 2026 · MODEL Editors

Cartoon. Caption: Meta's business brought in $32.8B in cash this quarter. The AI shopping cart came to $34.9B. On the left, a lemonade stand with a sign reading ADS, $64.6B sold this quarter, has an open, empty cash box with a moth flying out and a counter label reading Free cash flow: minus $2.12B. A sandwich board reads: New, Jan 2027, Class C. Same lemonade. No vote. On the right, a smiling cartoon robot labelled AI pushes a shopping cart piled with racks labelled GPU, Servers and Data center, trailing a receipt: servers, data centers, network, total $34.91B, cash from ops $32.79B. The robot says: Relax. The investments are paying off. Footer: Figures from Meta Q3 2026 results, Oct 21, 2026. Not investment advice.

Markets

Meta's AI build-out cost more than its business brought in this quarter

Meta beat revenue estimates with $64.6 billion, but capital spending of $34.91 billion outran the $32.79 billion its operations generated, leaving free cash flow at negative $2.12 billion. It is also creating a new class of non-voting shares to help pay for the AI race.

October 21, 2026 · MODEL Editors

Our take

Sources

The top AI tools this week, tested.

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Retail bought the chip dip with 3x leverage. The dip had a basement.

Tesla's cash-flow beat came from spending less on AI than planned

Meta's AI build-out cost more than its business brought in this quarter